Will it be the Vodka lovers or the Gauchos taking home the Davis Cup?

Finally the Davis Cup final is coming and there is great potential for a close final between Russia and Argentina. As the man known as Jimbo said “I couldn’t have had a better final even if I rigged the draw”.

There are so many possible scenarios to this tie and that alone makes it interesting, both the captains Shamil Tarpishev otherwise known as Yeltsin’s stooge and Alberto Mancini are very good leaders and shrewd and their tactics will come into play for sure, as they have to find the right balance and they have multi-dimensional options and that can make things just as difficult as only having a two man team.

First of all I will preview the Russians and they are the home team, yet the only time they have won the Davis Cup was away in France and the two finals at home they lost first of all in 1994 to Swedes on an indoor surface where Boris “boozer” Yeltsin walked in at 5-5 in the 5th set of the Edberg and Volkov match holding up play and then the next year against the inspired Yanks on slow heavy clay. That is one hurdle they have to get over and the fact that they are favourites and haven’t won the Davis Cup while being a favourite.

They have an excellent all round team with Safin, Tursunov, PMK and Youzhny. All four guys that can play on all surfaces and singles as well, so they are likely to lose the doubles tie, then again one can’t tell Davis Cup does strange things to players. The only constant here is that Safin will be playing singles and since he is the number 2 he will be playing Nalbandian on Day 1 and then the vital 5th match if it comes to that. Safin and Nalbandian will be the key players in this tie. Though Tursunov has shown his strong mentality in Davis Cup defeating Gasquet and Roddick in vital matches that have secured Russia’s place and the PMK is solid all around and has a combined 6-0 record against Calleri and Acasuso, though he is negative against Chela and Cañas. Youzhny has been named in the squad, but he will be either head cheerleader or somehow recovered from the broken bone in his foot and play doubles or a blinder in singles.

Onto the Argentines now, this is their golden generation of players and only the second time they have made the DC final. They aren’t favourites at all and that is something they can use to their advantage. Vilas and Clerc were the forerunners and it would mean a lot to Argentina to win the DC for the first time and this team have excellent harmony and that is something that should not be underestimated at all. Like the Russians, they have excellent depth and flexibility in their squad and how Luli uses his squad is vital. Mancini is aware that Shamil has been known to bullshit about his team selection, well claim that one player is playing and then he will substitute for another. Guillermo Cañas has made a wonderful comeback and is there with the team, but it would be too much to ask him to step up from clay challengers to a Davis Cup final indoors and this will mean that chubby Chela will be more than likely the 4th player, though one can never tell. It could be a case that PMK doesn’t play on Day 1 to avoid playing Chela, though if it goes to a 5th match then Chela won’t play a role.

The Order of Play will be intriguing as it would be advantageous for Argentina if Nalbandian plays first against Safin and this is the one arena where he always plays his heart out and tries his best. If Nalle can defeat Safin, then that will liven things up for sure, the other side is that if Nalle has to win the match at 0-1 down it will be a lot of pressure on him, as for Argentina to win the Davis Cup they will need to be 1-1 after Day 1 at worst.

This leads into the next question who will be the second singles player be Chucho Acasuso has been training well and responds well to Luli. His record indoors isn’t that good and while he has the best serve of the Argentines, his return game is streaky and he needs to be more of a man on the backhand and hit more of them. Calleri is another guy who lives for this format and he is the guy that I believe would be better suited to playing Safin in the last match.

Doubles well Nalbandian is the key and he plays well with Chucho or Calleri, so it wouldn’t be too radical to suggest that one of them will be playing in the doubles, but the match does rest on Nalbandian’s shoulders and he knows that. He has an excellent team with him and they are playing against a very good side as well and the tactics are going to be so important here in how they use their combinations.

If Argentina wins the Davis Cup, it will be so much more rewarding because they won 2 out of the 4 ties away from home and that is what the best sides should be able to do win the matches away from home.

The thing about this format is they win as a team and lose a team. The extreme levels of emotion involved as well is different from regular tournament play and this needs to be appreciated, it’s not about the money or individual glory solely, but then again it’s a great thing when the number 1 in the world Federer claims he cares about history, yet likes to piss on one of the most historical tennis events and he doesn’t have the excuse of a dud number 2 player.

As for who will win the final, well I think Russia will, but this is not the outcome that would be preferred. Hopefully it will be a hard fought and well contested final and whoever wins will have deserved it especially since they didn’t make the final on the back of having all ties at home.