Saturday, May 23, 2015

Roland Garros: Can Novak Djokovic Find The Solution

Yes, it’s that time of the year where what used to be my favourite Slam comes around. Thankfully there are a few different questions this time instead of how many sets will Rafael Nadal lose on the way to collecting another Roland Garros title. Is it time for Djokovic to shine. It wasn’t always this way. There was a time when Roland Garros was the most open of the Slams due to the specificity of the surface and before the surfaces were homogenised to the point where the only difference now is how the players adjust their movement.

Before 2005
We had the Björn Borg era where he only lost once in Paris to Adriano Pannatta, but like another current player more of him later. Once Borg retired, then there was some young guy from Växjö who achieved the rare feat of winning the junior title and then the senior title next year. Yes, this cat is the one who helped solidify my love of tennis and he shared titles with a guy called Lendl between 1982 and 1988. Lendl has another parallel with a modern player just the venues are different.


Wilander vs. Vilas


Chang underarm serve

Once Wilander lost the love of the game and Lendl was getting undone by a devoutly religious young American Michael Chang cramping up, using underarm serves and running around the clay with his huge calves. Chang managed to win his only Slam in 89 and remains the youngest winner of a Slam, he is currently doing excellent work with Kei Nishikori.

After Chang’s win this was when Roland Garros was capable of producing a multitude of winners and not necessarily the player who was the form horse coming into the event would leave as the champion. Andres Gomez in 90 was a clear example of that, the genial Ecuadorian outsmarted Thomas Muster in the semis and the raging favourite Andre Agassi in the final.

Through Courier and Bruguera winning back to back titles. Muster getting the title he truly deserved after dominating 1995 on the clay. Kafelnikov taking advantage of a strange 1996 event where the weather was so warm that the balls were flying leaving 3 competent players on clay Kafelnikov, Stich, Rosset and Sampras in the last 4. The memorable Guga Kuerten run in 97 taking out 3 former RG champs. Albert Costa whose chance he thought his chance had passed in 2002 and then Gaston Gaudio in 2004 who won of the most bizarre Grand Slam final over the raging favourite Guillermo Coria.


Nadal Era


Nadal with one of his many trophies

There are some people out there who don’t realise that tennis on clay existed before Rafael Nadal and will continue to when he retires from the sport. 2005 was where it all began he had the Thomas Muster 1995 like year on clay defeating Mariano Puerta in the final. Yes, anyone can have one great year like that, but unlike so many others Nadal managed to continually do this on the clay always peaking at the right time for Roland Garros.

Yes, there are certain advantages he had the types of players that could expose his very few weaknesses on clay weren’t numerous and even then they had to play above themselves over an extended period of time. Just like Borg before him he has lost to only one player in Paris Robin Söderling who said this week “"So maybe it's better if Rafa loses again, then everybody will stop asking me about it."

He hasn’t won any of the big clay titles this year and every player declines even the great ones. When there is a crisis of confidence it’s natural for players to retreat back to familiar and safe routines. Nadal can run, defend or moonball depending on your viewpoint all day on clay but at his best his ripping the forehand playing close to the baseline. The year so far he has been too passive waiting for the other player to make a mistake. This plus as tough as he is on the clay, the aura isn’t as big as it was. Even then it still has to be done over best of 5 sets which only one player has managed to achieve.



Interesting timing about the news Brazilian umpire Carlos Bernandes has been banned from officiating Nadal’s matches for having the temerity of applying the time in between points rules to him ,Bernandes banned from umpiring Nadal no surprise he lost this match. It’s no secret the biggest gripe with Nadal apart from a huge majority of his fanbase is the time wasting and gamesmanship antics that he has pulled way too often. It’s more the whole humble nonsense that goes with it. He does what it takes to win, which is what a professional athlete is supposed to and believes the rules don’t apply to him. That’s not the mark of a humble athlete even then there has to be a certain amount of self belief needed to make it in any industry.

Draw

It’s a bit strange at how excited some fans get about a main draw. Not sure what has changed we have 128 players, 104 direct, 8 wildcards, 16 qualifiers who are drawn into section. The champion still has to win 7 matches to take the title, this hasn’t changed since they went to 128 player draws. I do wish they had 16 seeds again but that has as much chance as Soeda Go winning Roland Garros.

Djokovic and Nadal in the same section of the draw well that’s interesting in its own way especially Nadal doesn’t have anyone in that section who could majorly threaten him. I’d love El Cabezon Nico Almagro to be that guy, but he isn’t at his peak and yes I missed the big strut with the chest out and the backhand.

Andy Mooray yes I much prefer the Spanish pronunciation has had his best ever clay season. Still don’t think he will win Roland Garros in spite of his excellent form. Paris normally gets a mixture of conditions and he will be vulnerable on a cool and cloudy day with heavy conditions the forehand on clay is still the shot that will break down or penetrate enough.

The bottom half of the draw I’d love a surprise finalist though Berdych, Wawrinka and Nishikori have achieved a Slam final already. The old man Federer as well as he’s playing he is more vulnerable these days in the Slams and wouldn’t surprise if he lost before the quarters but can never write him or Nadal off.

Opportunities

That’s the great thing about Grand Slams there are opportunities abound, the ranking points especially for qualifiers if they can win a match, the financial side, the opportunity for their best result which can kickstart their season. Not everyone has a chance to win the event so have to maximise the chances on offer.


Kavčič

Kavčič drew the clay clown Lu but Kavčič has had a strange season so far. Normally solid on the clay, though he is in the situation where the ranking is ok but his game isn’t improving and had injury issues which doesn’t help. If gets through that either Smyczek or Anderson next and will never forget the Aus Open match with Anderson where he was down 1-5 in the 3rd and won the set taking the match in 4 while wearing his coaches tennis shoes.


Seppi

South Tyrol’s finest Seppi has a tough but winnable match against John Isner an American that isn’t a clayphobe. Clay helps Isner’s serve and his second serve is even more dangerous than his first with the bounce he gets on it. Isner can break easier on clay as he has more time on the returns. For Seppi it’s one of those matches where he really has to take care of his own serve, not get frustrated when Big John drops the bomb and take the few chances he’ll get.

Stephane Robert the likable French qualifier plays another qualifier for a shot at Nick Kyrgios more than likely. Will be interesting to see how the French crowd will react to Kyrgios on the main show courts. I have the feeling that Kyrgios will love the theatre, the jeers when he throws a racquet which are common then again he can win them over with his play.



Gimeno Traver who has been in excellent form should be all refreshed and ready to go and if he gets past Brazilian Souza a possible meeting with fellow Spaniard Ferrer would love the upset but don’t see it happening. Sweden which had at least one finalist from 1974 to 1989 has 2 qualifers in the main draw. Elias Ymer who was the first graduate of the Magnus Norman academy and now working with Galo Blanco who has an excellent record of developing players he plays Rosol which will be a good test for him. Christian Lindell not so lucky he got Tsonga.

Pablo Cuevas is seeded for his favourite Slam but that’s the next step for him to improve his Grand Slam record. Yes, of course he was part of the greatest ever doubles triumph with Luis Horna so he has tasted success before needs to build on it. He is playing big Sam Groth who has very little clue on clay but a huge serve works well on any surface and Cuevas has to be conscious of that.

Domi Thiem who is playing in the Nice final plays the player formerly known as Slovenian but is British Aljaz Bedene. Thiem has had a slow start to the year but doing well the week before a Slam can help or hinder Thiem. Bedene has not won a match at a Slam yet and that plays on a players’ mind just look at Marinko Matosevic when he finally achieved that win. A Thiem and Cuevas match would be worth it for the backhand battle alone

Clay court clowns

Yes, these are among my favourite species on the tour along with the grasscourt gimps which will be profiled during Wimbledon. With homogenisation of the surfaces this species are a lot harder to find but thankfully they’re still around. The clay court clown is the guy who can’t move at all on the surface e.g when they try and slide into the ball they can’t stop and slide for metres afterwards. Generally they lack a clue in knowing when to defend and when to be aggressive, lack the subtlety even the most grinding clay lover can hit a dropshot now and then.

Examples in the draw are Ito, Lu, Soeda, Lacko, Muller, Smyczek, Sela, Groth they fit the above description. Kenneth Carlsen in the past was one of the greatest ever clay clowns losing to Srichaphan 6-2 6-1 who himself was elite in this category. It’s interesting to see people who are outstanding in other areas look like dancing rhinos on clay.

The Mental

Djokovic has a few parallels with Lendl as outstanding players they aren’t as beloved as say Federer and Nadal in this generation or Borg and McEnroe in Lendl’s time. Both are multilingual, critics would say they’re mechanical as players but you don’t get extra points for winning matches in style.

The area in which they are most similar is the burning desire to win the one elusive Slam that will define their careers. For years Lendl tried to Wimbledon he was so meticulous in his planning, diet, fitness, attempted to create the same conditions for him to train at home but was unsuccessful. He didn’t have the extra grear, nor the natural grasscourt noius he had the huge chance in 87 to win it but failed to do and the harder he tried the worse it got.


Djokovic in the face of pressure

Winning Roland Garros is the one goal Djokovic has and he needs to find the right mental balance for him to achieve it. This will not be easy considering how much he wants it. The final which should never have suspended when he had the momentum must be still in the back of the mind.

In my view it’s good for him to have the possibility of meeting Nadal before the final. The player who has stopped his dreams and on the wane this is the best chance to slay that beast but as we know in tennis have to play the round yellow thing, not the man.

Djokovic has been the best player this season and clearly so but that counts for nowt if he can’t produce it within these 2 weeks. If he finds the right mental state during the tournament then he will win the title, career Slam and Boris Becker will be associated with a clay title.